The GTX pops as commodities are encouraged by the MON positive earnings. GTX is at 4926 approaching the bull-bear line at 4950. For now, markets stumble sideways since GTX and UTIL remain in the bear camp and RTH, JJC and VIX remain the bull camp. The SPX moves thru the sideways 1458-1465 range today. The 8 MA is converging on the 34 MA from the underside on the SPX 30-minute chart as discussed in this morning's charts. The 8/34 MA cross is key this morning, as well as GTX 4950. The euro is 1.3085. The 10-year Treasury is at its lowest relative yield in a few days at 1.88%, which is equity bear favorable. AAPL is up over one percent, thus, tech is not leading the broad markets lower so the bears do not have much oomph. Consumer Credit is 3 PM and AA earnings are 4 PM.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 10:41 AM: The SPX fell thru the 1457 so the downside acceleration occurs as mentioned this morning, the SPX now with a 1452 handle. The 8 MA turned and is now sloping down again moving away from the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearishness for the hours and days ahead. The bears are slapping each other on the backs and looking for the key to the liquor cabinet. GTX is at 4903 well off the highs and well below the 4950 the bulls need to drive equity markets higher. Ditto UTIL, now dropping to 457. These encouraging bear signs are meaningless unless either RTH, JJC or VIX move back to the bear camp, and all three still prefer the bull side. VIX is back above 14 again now at 14.21. The 10-year is now 1.87%. The euro keeps dropping, now at 1.3072. WTIC oil price is down and turned negative a short while ago which coincided with the markets weakening. Pay attention to oil. AAPL is negative. Tech continues to not lead the broad markets lower so this says the bears do not have oomph. The bears need to win over RTH, JJC or the VIX to prove they can take markets lower. Now that the 1460-1461 strong support gave way, the next strong support levels are 1444 and 1441. Other support levels are 1453 (now being tested), 1451, 1447 and 1446. The 1453 support held on the first try. The 1-hour and 2-hour SPX charts show weak and bleak indicators so the market weakness would be expected to linger into the afternoon.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 1:13 PM: Status quo. Markets churn sideways, a lingering weakness continues. The SPX and COMPQ are down the same percentage so tech is starting to gain momo to the downside. AAPL is flat and likely controls a lot of power right now since Apple's direction forward should lead the broad indexes. The TRIN is 1.74 representing orderly, non-panic, selling today, like yesterday. The five key parameters listed above will not change their allegiance so the markets move sideways. One of them will flinch. VIX is at 14. The 1453 support is holding. Markets may try to idle thru tomorrow's session to wait for the ECB decision.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 3:35 PM: The SPX now attacking 1457 resistance maintaining the sideways vibe all day long. VIX is under 14 providing bull fuel. AAPL is a few bucks positive. Tech could not gain enough momo to the downside today which indicated the bears did not have the oomph so price floated higher in the afternoon. The SPX 2-hour chart may want to see another low so that would take the SPX down to 1450-1453 for a test either into the close today or tomorrow. Markets are probably focused on the ECB's meeting in one day. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart which maintains a bearish signal moving forward and this must be respected. The 8 MA is starting to curl higher again so the 8/34 MA cross has to be monitored. TRIN is 1.66 indicating steady-eddy selling, the type of selling that can continue along indefinitely, no panic-type flush at all, simply orderly selling. Note the TICK printing over +1000 about fifteen minutes ago which identified a top with the test of the 1457 resistance, resulting in price failure down to 1454.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 3:57 PM: Here comes the SPX for another test of 1457 R. BA is down two bucks and since it is a Dow Component, multiply by 8 and that tells you how many Dow points are affected, 16. So BA alone accounts for 16 of the 55 negative Dow points today, almost one-third of the move lower in the Dow today.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 4:01 PM: SPX closes sitting on 1457 S/R. AA finishes the day stone cold flat at 9.10.
Note Added 1/8/13 at 4:04 PM: AA earnings meet the bottom line at six cents and beat on the top line at 5.90 billion versus 5.60 billion. AA bounces one percent AH's moving up towards that 9.3 top rail channel resistance highlighted in this morning's chart.